13. Distributions: creating, editing and using

This section focuses on setting up distributions in your model. Distributions can be used in any of the following model types:

• Microsimulation/patient level simulation models

  • In these models, patient characteristics can be simulated through distributions which create random walks/patient simulation.

  • Review the Patient Level Simulation section for more details.

  • Patient level simulation is also used in Discrete Event Simulation (DES).

• Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) - parameter uncertainty (single outcome, cost-effectiveness)

  • In these models, distributions are used for parameter uncertainty. This sections shows how you can create distributions and then the following two sections show two different use cases:

  • Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) on single outcome models .

  • Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis on CE Models

• Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis with Microsimulation - combination of 1 & 2

  • Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis and Microsimulation on Cost-Effectiveness Models.

• Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information (EVPPI) - PSA with distribution(s) isolated

  • EVPPI Simulation on CE Models

 

Derivations and detailed explanations of the distribution formulae provided here may be found on many math/statistics web sites, and in most texts on probability theory. See, for example, Christensen, Ronald; Data Distributions: A Statistical Handbook (2nd Ed.); Lincoln, Massachusetts: Entropy Limited, 1989.